I'm not arguing that Assad getting the boot wasn't a good thing for the region but there's no reason to think Iran's proxies won't be coming back after this conflict unless the regime actually falls which, is I would say is a long shot since no ground war. Houthies are rising, Hezbollah is hurting but they'll be back.
I'm content to simply leave things as they are forever if need be. Iranian regime can't persist on its own absent massive oil related cash flows. The regime is a parasite that needs a host to live in. Would love to see the blockade kept on Iran until the regime dies.
Ain't gonna happen unless the regime dies in the next 6 months of which there are little indicators. The economic cost is proving pretty high and there is no political or public support for effectively a forever war. This is called "no exit strategy" thanks for defining it.
More shit generally is otherwise getting through Hormuz and the Houthis are at present a non-issue to non-Saudi vessels.
Great but this is all trying to claw back to status quo and this could change rapidly as it has been up/down/up/down for 6 months now. What if Iran bombs more tanker and more pipelines? That's still a risk. This is "it's a mess but not as bad of a mess!". Still not good!
Houthi's have over extended themselves and are highly vulnerable to air attack.
Great, but that;s my point, the region is unstable.
Since you bring up the topic for those interested in regime change I can think of no better means of achieving it than the current policy of simply starving the regime of cash and letting nature take its course.
No reason to believe this though, Iran has been heavily sanctioned for years or decades, where has that gotten us? They are far more resilient than the other nations and they were able to brutally put down resistance just this year. This war isn't helping that! Maybe I'll be wrong
So far it is hard to ask for a better situation than what we have right now if regime change is your aim.
Yet you just pointed out ways Trump is screwing it up and no reason to believe he will come to his senses. These people are incompetent! You can bet on this admin but I have no reason to.
Also you have no guarantee whatever takes the regime over is better than the current one?
Today I'm quite certain they've always wanted a nuke and saw the JCPOA as a means to an end.
Then you didn't really understand how it was intended to work. The regime can say that, believe it, work towards it and all that was taken into account with the JCPOA. It's called getting what you can instead of pouting and taking the ball home and reducing your options. Good chance Iran comes out of this conflict better than when it started, Trump has to end it eventually. Also I will not be nice if you are using the word "Shillary" because I think you're lying.
Relevant limits vanish into thin air in the year 2030 (2589) They've lived up to their end of the bargain and now they are going to enrich until they feel they can sprint to breakout before anyone can do a thing about it. One can't well expect to have a coalition on the basis of an agreement that was never violated.
That's my point thank you. If Iran wants to enrich for a weapon you can go back and say "sign the extension" or we are back to where we were in 2025, bomb the nuclear sites but now we have allies, we have justification, we have a moral war. All things we do not have now. It's not like they can keep it a secret, we know what they are doing!
Why did Gulf War 1990 go so well and yet Iraq went so badly? Because it was the world vs Iraq and not America alone. Justification for war, public support, international support, these things matter! Right now we lack all of those.
Once again, if regime change in Iran is what you want and have wanted you should be fucking livid at Trump because he is screwing the pooch, he never made the case to the public so it was a doomed operation from the start, America does not win wars when the American public is against it, especially as prices are rising week over week, diesel is hitting record numbers day over day, he's about to lose Congress (who he never got a fresh AMF because they know they don;t have a justification for war, again, fucked it up, at least W had the good sense to make something up!)
You can put your confidence on Trump, Hegseth, Witkoff, etc but these people don't have your interests in mind, only their own, your interests only count if they align with theirs and that is already breaking. Good luck though chief.